Clearly
this predicting stuff is great... we need to bottle this stuff and
sell it! There is a flawed logic that says: If predicting others is
good for me and gives me an edge/advantage, then being predicted by
others must not be good for me.
Let's
think it through: If students can predict questions on a test, it
defeats the purpose of testing. In reality, if you know the
material, any set of questions is OK. The teacher is just spot
checking you. Secretly the teacher wants you to do well, she just
doesn't want you to cheat. If you know when Zebras will be on sale,
you will show up exactly then, and I can't sell them for as much. In
point of fact, you can get the best price on Zebras right around
Christmas time... they make lousy Christmas presents, and Zoos are
not much patronized at that time of year. If you could predict who
would win the NBA finals, everyone could predict it. There would be
no point in gambling on it. As for predicting where a lost child
would be found? The child is not bent on being un-predictable –
that would be hiding. This child is lost and if he were predictable,
he would benefit tremendously by being found.
Having
established then that predictability is not all bad, it remains the
case that most of us dislike our character being anticipated. Why
don't we like it?
Calling
for a trumpet flourish and a drum roll...
People
do not like to be predicted because they think it makes them look
simple.
I
didn't capitalize it because I wanted you to read the other stuff,
not just skip down to this part. But it's IMPORTANT, so I decided to
put it in it's own paragraph. Keep in mind that even stupid people
are complicated. But we – and please pay attention to my word -
“ASSOCIATE” simplicity with stupidity. The
aforementioned Chairman of the Federal Reserve is certainly not
stupid. He is taking many factors into account, and carefully
weighing many possible outcomes. And yet careful observation has
shown, that if he carries two brief cases to his nig meeting,
interest rates are going up!
